Risk Management

In full feather

Disasters have the potential to strike at any moment, leaving little or no time for an effective response. David Collard urges schools to take steps now to prepare a strategy for mitigating the effects of a potential bird flu pandemic

Governments are spending billions of dollars on virology and vaccine research to establish effective protocols to cope with the next human influenza pandemic.

The British Government’s plans for pandemic influenza are based on a minimum expectation of 50,000 deaths and 80,000 hospitalisations, with 25 per cent of the UK workforce taking 5-8 days off work due to illness over a three-month period, and absenteeism in the public sector of up to two-thirds of employees.

Due soon?
A new human influenza pandemic is statistically overdue and, in spite of the concern raised by world leaders, medical and scientific experts, many organisations and the general public are still largely apathetic towards the latest threat to welfare.

It may be that tabloid sensationalism has made the public sceptical after the previous panic-strewn scenarios have failed to fully materialise.

What next?
Experts agree that the most likely virus to “turn” pandemic will be a human form of the highly pathogenic avian flu virus H5N1. It has so far been responsible for 163 confirmed human deaths (as of 22/01/07), but no one can predict for certain which virus will start the next new pandemic. Its transmissibility, virulence or resistance to drugs are also unknown factors until it is established and already spreading.

Despite the hype and uncertainty, there are many proactive things that schools can do to limit the panic and impact of a pandemic. However, such is the nature of a pandemic influenza, it is likely to be too late to make effective plans from scratch once it has started.

So what can you do?
The Government is making plans on a national scale, but the long-term effect on UK schools will be in the hands of governors and staff. It is widely believed that the quality of local responses to the spread of disease (voluntary quarantines, good personal hygiene, nutrition and fitness) are often more important in the long-term than national defences such as antiviral drug administration and transport restrictions.

It is prudent for schools to draw up a contingency plan or amend existing plans as soon as possible for any pandemic that may occur. You could nominate one person or set up a small team to understand and monitor the latest news and data. This information can then be examined to assess how the risks to health and trade will affect the school’s operations. For instance, there could be national limitations on movements of people. This may not be a problem for boarding schools, but would be an issue for day schools.

Once you have considered the risks that could arise and how the school might be affected, take time to agree contingency plans to help staff, children and parents cope with the perceived problems.

Plan now
The current thinking in risk management is that the best protocols for a response to pandemic influenza would include (but would not be limited to) measures that are:

• adaptable at short notice and based on the latest, most accurate information available from reliable sources (such as the World Health Organisation);
• understood at an appropriate level of detail by everyone concerned – which would include staff, pupils, parents and tenants of property; and
• tested as part of your usual business continuity planning procedures. Most organisations that test their continuity plans find shortcomings in their effectiveness.

By considering all possibilities and eventualities as part of your risk management and disaster planning procedures, you will limit the risks to people and reputation.

Sources: UK Health Protection Agency, World Health Organisation, US Center for Disease Control & Prevention, Dr Clare Stephens, Clinical Director of Barnet Primary Care Trust, Department of Health.

David Collard is marketing manager for HSBC Insurance Brokers specialist education division. David can be contacted on enquiries.schools@hsbc.com or through www.schools.hsbc.com

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